Bitcoin briefly touched its lowest level since the February crash on Monday morning before recovering, as a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict sent risk assets lower across Asian markets before buyers stepped in near the $65,000 zone.
The session low of $65,112 was reached in the early hours before Bitcoin recovered to $67,402 as Asian markets opened, a move that reflects a market willing to sell hard on geopolitical shock headlines but quick to find support at levels that have held since the war began five weeks ago.
What Drove the Overnight Move
The escalation came from several directions simultaneously. Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the conflict, opening a new front that extends the war beyond the direct U.S.-Israel-Iran theatre. Additional U.S. troops arrived in the region, stoking fears of a potential ground operation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a military operation to extract uranium from Iran, though no decision has been confirmed.
Iran also struck two aluminium production facilities in the region, sending the metal up as much as 6% and signalling that the war’s economic damage is broadening beyond oil into industrial commodity supply chains. Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $115 a barrel — now roughly 90% higher year-to-date — compounding the inflationary pressure that has already been reshaping the macro environment for months.
Asian equity markets responded sharply. South Korea’s benchmark index fell 3.2% on a technology stock selloff. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.4%. S&P 500 futures pared losses to trade roughly flat by the time European hours began, suggesting some stabilisation after the initial overnight reaction.
The Broader Crypto Picture
The recovery in Bitcoin was mirrored across the majors, though the 24-hour green obscures a rougher weekly picture. Ethereum recovered approximately 2% to $2,044. Solana gained 0.9% to $83.48. XRP added 1.4% to $1.35.
Over the week, however, the losses are more visible: Bitcoin is down around 1%, Ethereum 0.9%, XRP 1.9% and Solana 3.7%. The one notable outlier is Tron, which gained 2.6% on the day and sits 4.6% higher on the week — quietly outperforming the entire majors complex while the rest of the market navigates geopolitical volatility.
Why the $65,112 Low Matters Technically
The technical context around Monday’s low is worth examining carefully. Since the war began on February 28, when Bitcoin briefly touched $64,000, the asset has built a pattern of higher lows on each successive escalation: $64,000 to $66,000 to $68,000 to $69,400 to $70,596. Each shock produced a selloff, and each selloff found a higher floor than the last.
Monday’s dip to $65,112 breaks that sequence. It is the first time in five weeks that the floor has moved lower rather than higher, putting the pattern of higher lows under genuine pressure for the first time since the conflict began.
Whether Bitcoin recovers from here and re-establishes the uptrend, or whether Monday’s move marks the beginning of a more sustained break below the range that has held since late February, is the question the next 24 to 48 hours will likely answer.
The Fed Dimension
The broadening of inflationary pressure into aluminium and industrial supply chains adds another layer of complexity to an already constrained monetary policy environment. Oil at $115 was already complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate cut calculus. Direct attacks on metal production facilities extend those supply-side pressures into a wider range of industrial inputs, making a near-term return to a disinflationary trajectory harder to sustain.
For Bitcoin and risk assets more broadly, a Fed that is pushed further from rate cuts by geopolitically-driven inflation represents a meaningful headwind. The correlation between rate cut expectations and risk asset performance has been consistent enough over the past two years that any development extending the tightening timeline carries direct implications for crypto market sentiment.
