Strategy can survive Bitcoin crashing to $8,000 – but can it escape the slow bleed of dilution?

before recovering and has cut its end-2026 target to $100,000.

For Strategy, the key is not which number wins the forecast battle. It is how each path affects two variables that drive the dilution question.

The first is whether the stock can reclaim levels above $183.19 as Sept. 15, 2027 approaches, which changes noteholder incentives and reduces the chance of a cash demand.

The second is the amount of equity Strategy must issue to maintain its cash-coverage stance, including the $2.25 billion reserve,…