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In 2025 and early 2026, Bitcoin’s behavior has been less “digital gold” and more regime-dependent. Sometimes it trades like a tech beta, then like a rates-and-liquidity-duration trade, and only intermittently like a hedge.
The real story is which macro regime makes which identity dominate next.
The setup matters. The Federal Reserve held the Fed funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% on Jan. 28, reinforcing a “watch incoming data” stance rather than a clean easing tailwind.
The IMF’s January 2026…
