Odds Bank of Japan raises rates hits 80% with Bitcoin on the sideline – one hidden signal decides everything

Bank of America Securities expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its April 27-28 meeting. Markets already price roughly 80% odds of that outcome, according to swap data cited in recent BoJ meeting minutes.

The 25-basis-point move itself sounds modest, but the debate it has sparked runs deeper: could a return to 1% policy rates, last seen in Japan’s mid-1990s, trigger a global carry-trade unwind that forces deleveraging across risk assets, including Bitcoin?

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