I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this year and January delivered some very concerning red flags

My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing while price bleeds

I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one simple idea, Bitcoin still moves in cycles, and the next real “this is the low” moment tends to arrive when miner economics and flows line up at the same time.

It is now Jan. 30, 2026, and the honest update is this, the variables I care about look more stressed than they did when I published, and the tape has not delivered the kind of panic…